Week 9 College Football picks: #FreeGurley

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Nice Move

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Free the man, dammit. Football just isn’t as fun when the best players are sidelined for anything that isn’t illegal or health-related. Let the kid play. Anyway, we continue to keep rolling with another winning week. Future investors would say take 10 on every game we pick–you’re sure to come out ahead at the end of the season.

By grace alone, here are your week nine college football picks:

TSG Lock of the Week

Mississippi State @ Kentucky

Spread: Mississippi State -13.5
TSG Pick: Mississippi State -13.5
Summary: Come on, now. Dak Prescott is on a roll. Vegas doesn’t think the Bulldogs offense can go into Lexington to cover a two touchdown spread off of their bye? It may be screaming “trap,” but we just can’t say no. We take it. The number one team in the nation can cover this one. Dak Prescott is having himself a Cam Newton-esque season, and he seems to be focused on the end goal this season. Even if the Bulldogs let off of the gas for this one, they will still win by more than three touchdowns.

Oregon @ Cal

Spread: Oregon -18.5
TSG Pick: Cal +18.5
Summary: Cal can throw up some points. The team has scored more than 40 points in four of its seven games, but when you take a closer look at these games, a different story is told. Most telling: Cal lost to a Washington team by 24 points while Oregon creamed the Huskies 45-20 last week. The game opened up at 16, got all the way up to 19, and pulled in enough suckers to pull it back down to 18.5. Friday night at home against the less explosive than usual Oregon allows Cal to keep it respectable.

Memphis @ SMU

Spread: Memphis -23
TSG Pick: Memphis -23
Summary: We almost feel bad for SMU continuing to get throttled. Almost. Except for the one bizarre outlier at East Carolina, SMU has failed to reach seven points in any game this season. Memphis is a solid mid-major, but this is all about the ineptitude of SMU. We’ll keep rolling with them until they show any real signs of life. Our guess is that the Mustangs just roll over and play dead for the rest of the season.

Ole Miss @ LSU

Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
TSG Pick: Ole Miss -3.5
Summary: Earlier this year, we did an article on best and worst case scenarios for the top 10 teams in the nation. Some commenter crucified us for assuming that LSU didn’t have a chance to beat Auburn this year, and it’s proved to be dead-on accurate. LSU just doesn’t have the magic of Death Valley working for it this year, and Bad Bo has yet to show up for Ole Miss. Until proven otherwise, we have to roll with the hot-handed Rebels.

Oregon State @ Stanford

Spread: Stanford -13
TSG Pick: OSU +13
Summary: Thirteen?? That’s a cop out, Vegas. A 14-point game would leave us with no question on this one. We will take the Beavers at 13, because Stanford hasn’t proven to us that it can score consistently against a decent opponent. The Pac-12 is all upside down, so expect the unexpected.

West Virginia @ Oklahoma State

Spread: Oklahoma State -1
TSG Pick: WVU +1
Summary: Pick ’em! The home team is awarded a point because this game is such a toss-up. WVU’s only losses come from Alabama and Oklahoma, while the Pokes of Oklahoma State are still picking up the pieces of the TCU throttling of last week. Oklahoma State gets up early but won’t be able to hold on against this Mountaineers team.

Alabama @ Tennessee

Spread: Alabama -17.5
TSG Pick: Tennessee +17.5
Summary: Either Lane Kiffin summoned the ghost of Bear Bryant to coach last week or Alabama just had one of those “things just can’t go wrong for us” days. Nothing this season has proven the Tide should continue throwing up 59 points in a game. The line started at 16 and quickly moved to 19. Take the Vols for this evening game. The majority of the public is overreacting to last week’s results, and you can expect a huge regression from the ‘Bama offense. Tennessee’s young team will keep the Vols within two touchdowns for a majority of the game.

South Carolina @ Auburn

Spread: Auburn -17.5
TSG Pick: Auburn -17.5
Summary: South Carolina is four and three on the season; four and three against the spread. The Cocks are one and two against the spread in their last three contests against par football clubs. Auburn, at home, in a much needed SEC win against an easy opponent, will open this one up late. Auburn’s evening will end with a 24 or more point advantage.

Michigan @ Michigan State

Spread: Michigan State -17
TSG Pick: Michigan State -17
Summary: Rivalry games don’t really mean much when the teams playing are in completely different classes. Brady Hoke is playing to keep his job alive while the Spartans are coming off of a 56-17 victory against Indiana. If Michigan State continues to win and another one-loss non-SEC team drops from here until conference championship week, the green and white have a shot of breaking into the 2014 playoff picture. That, and Michigan’s complete lack of a real offense is a recipe for a Wolverine whooping.

Vanderbilt @ Mizzou

Spread: Missouri -21
TSG Pick: Vanderbilt +21
Summary: Mizzou Homecoming is a faint memory of the free-spirited women of New Orleans at Mardi Gras, a Vegas bachelor party, and lose-your-job drunk all rolled into 48 hours. Sadly, the energy won’t bring back Maty Mauk’s lore in the eyes of Missouri fans. Mizzou’s offense just can’t score. Mizzou’s offense can’t even string a decent drive together. Without two of the best defensive lineman in the nation, who knows where this team would be? For now, Mizzou patiently waits in the backseat to see if Georgia will crash its cruise-controlled course to the SEC championship. And about this game? Mizzou wins. Vanderbilt will play like shit, but the Tigers just aren’t in a place where anyone can expect them to put up many points with their offense, and teams are no longer going to kick to Marcus Murphy.

Texas @ K-State

Spread: K-State -10
TSG Pick: K-State -10
Summary: The Wildcats are fresh off a victory against the ESPN-appointed 2014 Big 12 champion Oklahoma Sooners. Granted, KSU probably could have lost the game if college football kickers weren’t around just to fuck up wins and spreads, but nonetheless, the team pulled it out. The K-State season would be a complete turnaround and an ESPN-worthy story if it would have pulled out an easily obtainable win against Auburn earlier this season, but that chip on those guys’ shoulder has carried them into games as a stronger team. Texas? Get out of here. Ten points is a gift to Charlie Strong’s team. This spread should be 17, and even then, we would take the Cats over the Horns.

Arizona State @ Washington

Spread: ASU -3
TSG Pick: ASU -3
Summary: Barring one terrible Thursday night game, Arizona State has been one of the premier teams in the Pac-12. Sure, they lost some focus, but after allowing 62 against UCLA, the Sun Devils have managed two tough opponents to cover each spread. Washington has played a cupcake lineup beside Stanford and Oregon, and both games resulted in a seven point or more losses.

Happy betting, folks. Stick with your boys, @tokensportsguys, and keep winning; it’s that simple.

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