I know this is usually not the place for politics, but I can’t think of a better collection of educated young conservatives than this site and its followers, so I come here with my plea for rationality. Tonight, the Bernie Sanders wave of hipsters, ne’er-do-wells, punk rock vegans, and former addicts will likely crash. Outside of his home state of Vermont, accounting for a whopping .6% of overall delegates, Sanders will be swept, or close to it, on “Super Tuesday.” Though he vows to stay in the race, from a practical standpoint, this will end any hope of a “socialist” American president. At least a self-described one.
On the GOP side, Trump is about to Peyton Manning the competition (rub his asshole and balls in their faces while laughing all the way to the Hall of Fame.) Outside of Texas, the home state of Senator Cruz, Trump is essentially a slam-dunk in all other Super Tuesday primary states. Texas could even be in play, with most recent polling asserting a statistical dead heat (no candidate possesses a lead outside of the margin of error.) Nationally, for the first time in the 2016 election cycle a Republican has come within 1 point of 50 percent support: Donald Trump.
Now, for a lot of us, this might actually be a “good” thing, or at least we might think so. Trump is definitely funny. Those who know him claim this persona we’ve seen the last six months is more myth than reality, and hey, at least he isn’t Hillary or a communist. The problem is he cannot win. Those of you who are Poli Sci majors need to get to know the term “cross tabs.” A cross tab is an examination of not just the broad polling results, but the performance of each candidate amongst specific groups broken down by age, gender, religion, level of education, wealth, and so on. Polls also measure a candidate’s “negatives,” a term referring to eligible voters who cannot see themselves voting for a given individual, due to an accumulation of negative feelings toward said candidate.
Trump, though seemingly a juggernaut on the right, is actually extremely unpopular amongst moderate republicans, as well as right leaning independents. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, nearly ¼ of registered Republicans surveyed found it “highly unlikely” they could vote for Trump in a general election, even against a Democrat. Of independents surveyed, nearly 4/5 prefer Clinton or Sanders to Trump, while close to a third of self described “moderates” say they would consider staying home altogether if Trump is the GOP nominee.
Losing the presidency is a definite blow, but from a practical standpoint, having a strong majority in the legislature (which the GOP currently does in the House, with a small majority in the Senate) is just as important. President Clinton answering to a GOP-led legislature would be, at worst, a continuation of the status quo under Obama, with hope for greater consideration on the part of Hillary with the understanding 2020 will not be a softball election, but a battle. President Clinton and a Democrat majority in the legislature? Better start saving now because your taxes (and perhaps even more worrisome, our national debt) is about to explode faster than me during sober sex. It would be a complete disaster.
So, this is my prediction — mock me as much as you want but listen to the reasoning at least: I think the GOP must find an up-and-comer to run as an independent. Though this will essentially ensure a Clinton presidency, the primary has dissolved into such a dumpster fire that we need to salvage the legislature. How are these things related? The name of the game is turnout. If strong GOP voters are so discontent with their choices for president, some may stay home altogether, taking extremely valuable votes away from lower ballot candidates for the Senate and House. For example, Senator Portman of Ohio (a possible 2020 candidate for president) faces a strong challenge in former Governor Ted Strickland. This race is currently tied, with both sides claiming a small lead in one of America’s most important “purple” states. If even 5% of GOP voters “stay home” as almost 1/3 have said they would consider, a liberal Democrat will almost undoubtedly replace Senator Portman.
This is not unique to Ohio. With a third of the Senate and all 435 House seats on the line, the GOP cannot afford a liberal landslide. This is why we need an “independent” Republican, someone who can build a 10-15% base of national support as a springboard into 2020, establishing a real and electable frontrunner for the future.
Trump cannot win. He is a man quoted on several occasions as being a “democrat,” calling women “pigs,” “whores,” “disgusting,” “sluts,” etc. He has been accused of domestic violence, been divorced several times, has essentially no knowledge of foreign policy, and has almost completely isolated himself from mainstream Republicans (which are still the majority of the right wing electorate, though participation in primaries is usually dominated by the fringe on both sides hence the Trump + Sanders momentum.) Trump has failed to distance himself from the KKK, has destroyed GOP momentum with the Latino community, and has publicly mocked Americans with mental and physical disabilities. He cannot, and will not win.
A third-party Republican masked as an independent would destroy any slim hope of a Trump victory, would crown Hillary Clinton and make seven of the last eight presidential elections in which the Democrat has won the popular vote. However, this is our best chance to incite widespread GOP participation, hold or increase our Senate majority, and strengthen our grip on the House. With a strongly right wing legislature, Clinton will be largely hamstrung, hopefully branded an ineffective first-term president full of promises, not results. Meanwhile, our “independent” will have the entire term to fundraise, start as a clear frontrunner for the nomination, and build a war chest of not only funds, but missteps of the Clinton Administration, for a major victory in 2020.
In reality, four years of Hillary Clinton without a prayer of a Democrat controlled legislature is like hearing your new girl jerked off somebody in your pledge class. Yeah it sucks, but at least he didn’t give her a facial..
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