Week One Record: 13-10 ATS
Week one of college football is in the books. The Monday night Miami game and the Thursday night matchup this week have left us with little to no recovery time going into this weekend, but the college football kickoff weekend provided us with some relevant intel to actually bet on week two games. Georgia isn’t fucking around with its running attack, Alabama looked worse than it did in last year’s bowl defeat, and, unlike last year, Florida State is a very beatable team. Quite a few current top 15 teams have no business being in the top 15 (yet).
If you’re anything like we are, kickoff weekend also provided you with a crippling post-gameday hangover that could crush even the most committed of alcoholics–the type of hangover that had you projecting “Exorcism”-like fluid from both ends of your body. But hey, 12 hours of cheap beer, fried bar food, and excessive raging will do that to you. And guess what? The lines are in, and the safe bet says that this weekend will include just as much drinking and excessive cussing at a TV and/or your favorite bartender as last weekend did. That’s a bet I will 100 percent cover.
Welcome to week two. This is the week to start throwing around some money, if you’re so inclined. Vegas has provided you with a few easy wins to stimulate your drinking funds. Before we jump into the slew of matchups, a few notes:
• Beginning this week, we will pick our “TSG Lock(s) of the Week.”
• We won’t pick an O/U unless it is an extreme lock or someone asks in the comments section.
Last week, your Token Sport Guys went 56.5 percent ATS. A professional handicapper aims anywhere between 56 and 59 percent for a good year. Granted, these professionals are shopping their picks all over to make sure they get the most favorable spread and odds while we are probably just taking whatever our bookie gives us. Week one was less than stellar, but that’s all in the past.
TSG Lock Of The Week
Missouri at Toledo
Spread: Missouri -5
TSG Pick: Missouri -5
Summary: I can already hear it: “surprise surprise, these homers picked Mizzou.” Yeah? Blow me. This game is by far the best bet for the week. Look, I’m sure any Mizzou fan who watched the season opener last week wasn’t impressed with the team on both sides of the ball. Having said that, Mizzou is notorious for starting the season in an extremely underwhelming fashion. The Tigers usually sandbag their first few games before gelling on their first road trip. Luckily for THE Tiger nation, Mizzou scheduled its first road game as the second game of the season, rather than week six after the bye week like we usually do. I expect Mizzou to win by at least two touchdowns.
I don’t know if I should be furious from the middle finger Vegas is giving the Tigers or extremely excited to flip it right back after I take Sin City’s money. Tiger fans should be more upset with Vegas for even releasing a spread this disrespectful to Mizzou. Common sense prevails, however, since we are sure that Vegas will end up literally paying for such dumb odds.
Week Two Picks
Arizona at UTSA
Spread: Arizona -7
TSG Pick: UTSA +7
Summary: This pick came with much debate between the TSG. UTSA was an 11-point underdog last week and pulled out a 20-point victory against Houston. This game has “trap” written all over it. Here is why we aren’t taking ‘Zona in this one: 75 percent of the population has picked Arizona to win and the spread has not moved. Typically, when spreads aren’t moving to counterbalance the public’s vote, you pick against the crowd. UTSA’s 37 seniors and the Thursday night bright lights at home should be the right mix of experience and hype for UTSA to make some magic happen.
Ohio at Kentucky
Spread: Kentucky -12.5
TSG Pick: Kentucky -12.5
Summary: Kentucky beat up on Tennessee-Martin 59-14 last week at home. The game versus Ohio in week two should yield a similar result. Ohio squeaked out a win against Kent State last week, 17-14, with a pass-heavy attack led by senior receiver Landon Smith. Smith had seven catches for 71 yards and Ohio’s two touchdowns; however, he probably won’t be much of a factor once Kentucky keys in on him defensively. Kentucky takes the W with an impressive 17 point win.
Memphis at UCLA
Spread: UCLA -23.5
TSG Pick: Memphis +23.5
Summary: This game was also pretty damn hard to pick. Like we stated in our top 10 season projections and our week one picks, UCLA really doesn’t impress us on the offensive side of the ball. Memphis managed to throw up 63 points against a terrible Austin Peay opponent, demonstrating that it can at least score on lesser opponents. UCLA’s defense saved the team’s season against UVA last week with 21 defensive points in the first half. UCLA will win this one, but similar to last week, I expect them to leave the door wide open for the backdoor cover.
San Jose State at Auburn
Spread: Auburn -31
TSG Pick: Auburn -31
Summary: Arkansas fans, I owe you an apology. Your team stuck around with the SEC champs for a half of football. Even though Auburn was without its Heisman-hopeful quarterback, Nick Marshall, for a half, Arkansas still managed to put 21 points on the board. San Jose State isn’t a terrible opponent for Auburn, but the Tigers were almost able to cover Arkansas by 31, despite an incredibly shitty first half performance. We will take Auburn and give the 31.
Oklahoma at Tulsa
Spread: Oklahoma -24.5
TSG Pick: Oklahoma -24.5
Summary: Tulsa managed to pull out a win over Tulane in double overtime, while Oklahoma cruised against Louisiana Tech 48-16. Oklahoma didn’t even play that well and we expect its week two adjustments to lead to a lot more scoring. Tulsa is completely outmatched in this one. Oklahoma wins somewhere around 45-3.
Arkansas State at Tennessee
Spread: Tenn -16
TSG Pick: Tenn -16
Summary: Tennessee looked inspired against Utah State last Sunday. While we’re not believers that Tennessee will make any significant noise in the SEC, Vegas just isn’t giving the Vols enough respect. Tennessee will try to enjoy this last cupcake game before its two-week buzz-saw at Oklahoma and at Georgia. Mercy. Vols win by 20 or more points.
Florida Atlantic at Alabama
Spread: Alabama -40
TSG Pick: Alabama -40
Summary: FAU lost to Nebraska 55-7 last week. ‘Bama could show up, play as poorly as it did last week (which is still better than a great Nebraska performance) and still win this one by 40 or more. Side note, but still very relevant to this conversation: what unforgivable, disgusting act did Nick Saban commit and Lane Kiffin witness? What vile secret does Nick Saban have and Lane Kiffin know about that led to Kiffin’s role as offensive coordinator for the Crimson Tide? Seriously. Lane Kiffin has been nothing but a disappointment for EVERY team he has touched within the last decade. He has to be the most overrated coach of all time, right? Let’s look back at the Alabama bowl game last year: Nick brought Lane in to do some “offensive quality” research, which led to one of Alabama’s most unimpressive offensive performances in years. Last week, Lane looked so lost trying to move his offense against West Virginia that I was actually frustrated WITH him. It was just sad.
This picture says it all. “Why did you let me coach your offense, Nick?” is probably the question Lane just asked. And look at Nick. This is the face of a frustrated dad who doesn’t want to yell at his kid for completely fucking up a routine task. Nick looks like the dad-coach forced to play the fat kid on the pee-wee hoops team because the fat shit’s mom is either the pee-wee team’s “team manager/mom” or she’s his wife’s “best neighborhood friend” who always invites the family over for barbecues. Hang in there, Nick. We won’t blame you if you fire him after week six.
USC at Stanford
Spread: Stanford -3
TSG Pick: Stanford -3
Summary: We are picking Stanford solely because of the home field advantage. USC looked pretty decent against Fresno State and somehow managed to score 52 points, so we can see this one going either way. But Stanford is coming off of a shutout, which is notable regardless of the opponent. Stanford holds on in the fourth with a few key defensive stops.
Ole Miss at Vandy
Spread: Ole Miss -20
TSG Pick: Ole Miss -20
Summary: Vanderbilt got embarrassed at home last week and will more than likely be 0-2 after this weekend. Vandy’s inept offense and Swiss cheese defense won’t fare well against a Rebels team that played pretty well in its second half against Boise. It’s tough not to pick a 20-point underdog at home, but we do believe that Derek Mason can’t settle on a quarterback and that he is in over his head. Anchor Down, boys. Ole Miss is going in dry.
Michigan State at Oregon
Spread: Oregon -12
TSG Pick: MSU +12
Summary: This is the biggest game of the season for Michigan State. With OSU struggling to find an identity without Braxton Miller, MSU should be a lock for the Big Ten this year. The game against Oregon now has playoff implications. Oregon has been slowed by physical teams like the Spartans the last few years and should be held in relative check this week. Dantonio has proven he can get his teams prepared for meaningful games like this, and we trust him this time around to hang with the Ducks.
BYU at Texas
Spread: Texas -3.5
TSG Pick: BYU +3.5
Summary: BYU quarterback Taysom Hill looked like a stud against UConn in BYU’s victory last Friday. Even worse for Texas, David Ash will be out with concussion-like symptoms. David only went 19 for 34 with one TD pass against North Texas, so we aren’t even sure that will play too major of a factor. According to insight, it looks like a few offensive linemen will be out for Texas as well.
BYU has a very strong team this year with a solid chance of going undefeated. Texas will probably be one of BYU’s final tests, and we are confident BYU will be sitting at 2-0 come Sunday.
Michigan at Notre Dame
Spread: ND -4.5
TSG Pick: Michigan +4.5
Summary: We so badly hope Michigan can pull this one out. It sucks, because Notre Dame’s quarterback, Everett Golson, will probably prevent our wishes from coming to fruition. However, Notre Dame has continued to bench players in the midst of its internal academic fraud investigation, which will make this game a lot closer than many expect. Notre Dame wins but Michigan covers.
Virginia Tech at Ohio State
Spread: Ohio State -11.5
TSG Pick: Virginia Tech +11.5
Summary: Ohio State is exactly where we expected the team to be without Braxton Miller. We will say this to OSU’s credit, though: its defense figured out a way to stop the bleeding against Navy last week. Defending the triple option isn’t an easy task, but Ohio State rose to the occasion. OSU’s offense took three quarters to get going, but it was clear when the Buckeyes hit their stride. Virginia Tech didn’t play the prettiest game against William and Mary last week, but the Hokies’ offense is well-balanced enough to keep this game competitive. Ohio State wins but Virginia Tech covers.
That’s it for the week two picks. Here’s a tip to really focus in on: locks like the one that we have this week don’t come around very fucking often. If you are interested in making some cash and adding some hair to your chest, parley our lock and add either Tennessee, Auburn, or Stanford (in that order). You can thank us on Sunday.
Similar to week one, if you’ve got some games you would like us to pick, just throw them in the comments section or tweet us at @tokensportsguys. We will tweet out some other lines that we didn’t cover here as we get drunk watching the irrelevant 10 a.m. games. We would wish you assholes the best of luck on your weekend gambling excursion, but you should be mint so long you follow the TSG cheat sheet.