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The only thing Andy Reid likes more than eating dead pig…is winning football games off a bye week. In his 24-year coaching career, Reid is 28-5 coming off a bye, including playoff games. If you only include the games where Reid has had Patrick Mahomes, he’s actually even better. Mahomes has a career record of 9-1 off the bye, and the Chiefs have averaged 30.1 points in those ten games. Jacksonville is the hottest team in football and has a really great story, but they’re too big for their britches here. While the Jaguars are stout defensively against the run, they give up 239.3 passing yards a game, and they plan in the AFC South (which is…not exactly known for having America’s best gun-slingers). Just last weekend, Justin Herbert threw for 273 yards, and he probably would have gone for more if his coach wasn’t a moron who started their best wide receiver in a meaningless game leading to an injury. Jacksonville has especially struggled at containing tight ends, which is a huge red flag when the team you’re facing on Saturday has Travis Kelce. The Jaguars surrendered 1,087 receiving yards to tight ends this year and 13.1 yards per reception to tight ends, which were both the third-worst in the NFL. So I’m sure you wouldn’t be shocked if I told you that in Kansas City’s 27-17 Week 10 victory over the Jaguars, Travis Kelce finished with a team-high 81 yards for six catches and a touchdown. But Kelce isn’t the only one who will look to shine again vs. Jacksonville. As mentioned earlier, the one thing the Jaguars do very well is that they stop the run (opponents only average 4.1 rush yards a game, good for #5 in the NFL). For Andy Reid to open up play-action on the Jaguars, he’ll need to be creative, which is why he’ll probably use swiss-army knife, Kadarius Toney. The last time Toney played Jacksonville, you would have thought he was living in San Francisco with one of those in this house we believe in science signs because of how incredible his coming-out party was. Toney overwhelmed the Jaguars while getting just six touches, scoring his first career touchdown on a 6-yard reception, during which he hopped across the goal line on his right foot to avoid going out of bounds. Toney’s next touch was on an end-around; he sprinted past several defenders for a 32-yard gain, the longest run of his career. Just before halftime, Toney stretched a short catch near the sideline into a 23-yard gain, breaking three tackles along the way. And later in the game, he ran a double-move route and elevated over two defenders for a 22-yard reception.
And then there’s Patrick Mahomes. You know, the guy who just casually set the NFL record for most total yards in a season by a quarterback (combined passing and rushing) with 5,608. Considering Jacksonville is the third-worst defense in the league at stopping third downs (opponents convert 43.46% of the time), and Kansas City is the second-best offense on third-down (not that they get there much), I like Mahomes’ chances at moving the chains. Kansas City is 8-0 when State Farm’s greatest mascot throws for 320 yards or more and 10-1 when he gets to 260. This is going to be one of those games. Alright, we know how incredible Kansas City is on offense (the best team in the league by most metrics), but we also know that they struggle in their secondary a little bit. How big of a concern is that? Short answer, it’s not. Trevor Lawrence might be riding being a quarterback on a team that’s won seven of its last eight games, but he’s been inconsistent. In last week’s first half, he had four interceptions, he wasn’t great against the Titans, and he was meh against the Jets. He’s been clutch, which you can get away with playing teams that are used to shooting themselves in the foot, but not against the Chiefs. The five sacks Lawrence took in his first meeting against Kansas City were the most he was sacked all year. Philadelphia got to him four times, and so did Indianapolis. But there’s a correlation here – Jacksonville is 2-6 when he gets sacked multiple times. One of the two wins was against the Chargers last week. Vegas likes Kansas City -8.5, and they have the talent and experience to cover that by playing a young Jaguars team. Want a chance to put some money in your pocket for a long weekend? Take the Chiefs moneyline and get your $150 back in bonus bets instantly!
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