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December NFL football: where the calendar flips from “nice win” to “must-have win.”
Divisional grudge matches (expect uglier scores)
In December, familiar opponents tend to drag each other into fistfights: slower pace, more punts, more fourth-quarter tension. Rivalry games often come down to field position, third downs, and red-zone execution.
Prediction trend: Home teams and defenses travel well in these spots.
If you’re picking a winner, lean toward the team that can run efficiently and avoid turnovers, especially if weather is a factor.
Some exciting upcoming games:
Bills @ Patriots – Pick: Bills
This is classic AFC East December football: familiarity, game-plan weirdness, and a lot of snaps where the defense “knows what’s coming” even if it can’t always stop it.
Why I’m leaning Bills: Buffalo’s path is usually cleaner in these games because they can win multiple ways—push the ball downfield when the Pats crowd the box, or take the boring throws if New England keeps everything in front. Against a division opponent, I also trust Buffalo’s ability to generate just enough explosive plays to break a tight script.
Prediction: Bills by 7–10 (something like 27–17).
Cowboys @ Commanders — Pick: Cowboys
Divisional games on a holiday can get chaotic fast, but Dallas tends to travel well when they can control tempo and avoid giveaways. Washington’s upset path is pressure + turnovers—if they don’t get those, Dallas’ offense usually finds answers.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3–7.
Lions @ Vikings — Pick: Lions
This one screams “scoreboard stress test.” Detroit’s advantage is how consistently they can stay on schedule and finish drives. Minnesota’s counter is big-play variance. If it’s tight late, I’ll side with the team that’s been more reliable in the trenches.
Prediction: Lions by 3–6.
Broncos @ Chiefs — Pick: Chiefs
Holiday, short week, Arrowhead energy—this is the kind of setting where Kansas City turns one busted coverage or one special-teams error into a two-score swing. Denver can make it grimy, but the Chiefs’ late-game execution is the separator.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7–13.
Eagles @ Bills — Pick: Bills (close)
This is the kind of end-of-year matchup you circle: two physical teams, both capable of controlling a game, both happy to lean on you for four quarters.
Why I’m leaning Bills at home: In cold-weather late-season games, home-field matters more than people admit—communication, kicking comfort, and crowd noise all add up. Philly can absolutely win if they dominate the line and keep Buffalo from generating explosives, but I’ll take Buffalo to land the bigger punches and steal the key third downs.
Prediction: Bills by 1–6 (think 24–20 or 27–24).
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