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AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
When: Sunday, Jan. 25 (afternoon window)
This matchup screams “January football”: field position, pass rush, and one or two defining plays. The headline storyline is at quarterback—Denver is expected to start Jarrett Stidham with Bo Nix out—which changes how the Broncos have to win.
How the Patriots win
- Force Denver into long fields. If New England avoids short-field mistakes, the Broncos’ offense has to string together extended drives—harder to do when you’re playing more conservatively at QB.
- Win turnover leverage. New England’s defense just proved it can flip games with takeaways (four picks vs. Houston).
- Stay efficient early. The Pats don’t need fireworks—just consistent first-down gains to keep pressure off their own defense.
How the Broncos win
- Defense + hidden yards. Denver can absolutely win this if their defense creates chaos and their special teams/field position game keeps the scoreboard manageable.
- Lean run game, protect the ball. With a backup QB, the formula is obvious: shorten the game and avoid the killer giveaway.
Prediction: Patriots by 4 — New England’s ability to generate takeaways and control game script gives them the edge in a tight one.
NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks
When: Sunday, Jan. 25 (prime-time window)
These teams know each other—this is their third meeting—and the margins will be razor thin. Seattle is the No. 1 seed, at home, and the Rams arrive battle-tested after an overtime win in Chicago.
How the Seahawks win
- Explosives at home. Seattle’s best path is turning a one-score grinder into a two-score game with chunk plays—especially if they can get an early lead and unleash the pass rush.
- Win the “middle eight.” The final four minutes of the first half + first four of the second half often decide playoff games. One fast scoring sequence can flip everything.
How the Rams win
- Make it a possession game. If L.A. can avoid negative plays and keep Seattle out of obvious passing downs, they can drag this into the fourth quarter and steal it.
- Finish drives. In Seattle, field goals can feel like missed opportunities. Touchdowns in the red zone are the difference between an upset and a “close loss.”
Prediction: Seahawks by 6 — home-field, familiarity, and the ability to generate big swings plays in Seattle’s favor late.
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