Malcolm Henry
The Monday Night Moneymaker is back for its third week… and so far I am 2-0 in this space, which just means it is early in the season. For what it is worth, my other picks were pretty so-so this week between McCaffery getting hurt on Thursday (which most books gave back an on-site credit, so check to see if yours did) and Sunday line movement it has me paying out the juice coming into tonight.
First and foremost, as of this posting (2:00pm central time) the public is doing what the public does… it is riding the favorite and the over on WynnBet. If you don’t have a WynnBet account yet, sign up here.
Here are the details:
Dallas Cowboys’ Point Spread (-3.5)
- 73.1% of money
- 73.9% of tickets
Philadelphia Eagles’ Point Spread (+3.5)
- 26.9% of money
- 26.1% of tickets
Dallas Cowboys’ Money Line (-190)
- 64.7% of money
- 49.4% of tickets
Philadelphia Eagles’ Money Line (+160)
- 35.3% of money
- 50.6% of tickets
Over 51.5 Points
- 53.7% of money
- 54.8% of tickets
Under 51.5 Points
- 46.3% of money
- 45.2% of tickets
There are a few curious splits here to pay attention to, first and foremost the hook on the line will be curious to see if it stays or gets bought up/down, versus the % of tickets versus money spent on the Eagles moneyline. For nearly half the tickets coming in on Eagles straight but only a third of the money shows that people are going in with the Cowboys for the dollars.
Now, some inside angles to look at.
Through the completed games of Week 3 of the NFL season, Underdogs are paying out at 64%, away underdogs even higher with 68%, and the unders are clocking in a 60%. Steadily betting those three things are for real men.
Of those numbers, what does that mean for tonight? Well, the Eagles are 2-0 on the under to open the year… if trends like this matter to you.
As for the logic behind the rest of the action, generally it is considered a (-3) for home field, which means the books have this game as pretty close to a pick’em game — which explains the volume of people going in on the money line for the Eagles, to get the +160 end of a game that theoretically they could win.
Historically this game has been pretty back and forth and so that does not impact what I am going to do too much — the only consistent was that four of the last five games in Dallas, the Cowboys covered the (-3.5), and while the total has been under in only two of five, but that is also saying it has only hit on three of five, so not a trend that is actionable.
Injuries (and suspensions) to the Dallas offensive line could come into play, if you believe that the Eagles defense is as good as its stats and ignore that it played Atlanta and a banged up 49ers offense.
Truth be told, I may be sitting this game out. I do not see too much that I feel very confident about. That said, I do not get paid to tell you not to bet, I get paid to tell you where I am betting or what to bet… so, here goes:
Take the over. The Dallas offense is the best that the Eagles will have seen this year and it has played against Tampa Bay and the Chargers, two teams I find vastly superior to what the Eagles have played. In that same vein, the Eagles offense is pretty good in its own right, so, theoretically there will be points to be had.
The bet that I am going to make is for Dak Prescott to attempt over 36.5 passes. In the six games that Prescott has had Cee Dee Lamb as a weapon he has gone over 36.5 passing attempts five times, with the lone exception being last week against the Chargers. Additionally the number hasn’t been close as Prescott is averaging 43.9 pass attempts per game.
The Cowboys are fifth in the league in passing yards — and fifth in rushing, too — while also giving up almost 342 yards in the air. It could be a breakout for Jalen Hurt — so I am not betting the game, maybe just the total, but Dak will be throwing the ball.
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