Malcolm Henry
This Monday night we have a real treat with the Green Bay Packers looking to rebound from one of the worst performances in Week 1 taking on the Detroit Lions, who are looking to rebound from 44 years of mediocrity. Exciting stuff.
Before we go too far, there is some level of “contrarian methodology” that needs to be explained here. One of the most popular sports betting ideologies in recent times is to simply go against whatever side the public is backing when there is a high percentage or money coming in on one side. The theory behind this type of play is that the public can be easily brainwashed by hype, get all pumped up on the favorite, and it makes the line adjust so much that going against the masses becomes ‘smart’.
As of this posting (2:00pm central time) the public is doing what the public does… it is riding the favorite on WynnBet. If you don’t have a WynnBet account yet, sign up here.
Green Bay Packers’ Point Spread (-11.5)
- 64.9% of money
- 52.0% of tickets
Detroit Lions’ Point Spread (+11.5)
- 35.1% of money
- 48.0% of tickets
Green Bay Packers’ Money Line (-580)
- 59.3% of money
- 44.9% of tickets
Detroit Lions’ Money Line (+420)
- 40.7% of money
- 55.1% of tickets
Over 48.5 Points
- 81.7% of money
- 79.4% of tickets
Under 48.5 Points
- 18.3% of money
- 20.6% of tickets
There are several key takeaways from this information.
First: The public still loves a favorite. With nearly 65% of the money coming in on the Packers, the books are going to have to make that Lions line a little more tempting to help get their numbers in line. Again, the goal of books is not to predict an outcome but create a solid balance of money coming in so that they are guaranteed a profit. And threw the first almost two weeks, the books are killing it as underdogs are 21-10 against the spread. It is curious that there is a near 50-50 split in tickets but more money coming in on Green Bay. You may be able to wait until closer to the game and get +13, if you wanna risk it. There is virtually no way that the line drops unless a massive Lions bettor or 50 come in to play, so if you want the Packers you need to get them quick.
Second: Look under the hood at early returns this season. So far we have had SEVEN games between division foes with a line of +10 or more — that is an astonishingly high number to lay in an NFL game, especially early in the season. Now, in those seven games we have had a direct correlation to the totals, so depending on how you want to look at this you need to know if the HOME team covers the spread, the over is 3-1. If the ROAD team covers the spread, the under is 3-0. Meaning, you need to be looking at riding the Packers and the Over OR the Lions and the under. It is very rare that a road dog is going to cover in a shoot out. It happens, sure, but not likely.
Third: This is a completely random tidbit, but in the last 10 seasons we have had eight teams score 30 points in Week 1 and lose. Those teams are 0-8 ATS in Week 2 — we see you Detroit.
What are we playing?
In this one, it will be a parlay: We are pairing the Green Bay moneyline with the over.
+11.5 is just so much to cover in the NFL and even if Green Bay has a 17-point lead (which is massive) a garbage time touchdown can backdoor this one; so we will lay a lot on the moneyline and bank on the Packers getting real healthy against Detroit this week.
Green Bay 38 to Detroit 23. Yes, our prediction is to cover the line because logically that makes sense, but our bankroll is based on risk management, and the over seems like the best play.
If you wanna follow (or fade) us, the place to do it is on WynnBet.
