The Queen City vs. the Land. Chili vs. Pierogies. William Howard Taft vs. LeBron James. Cincinnati vs. Cleveland. It’s the battle of Ohio as the NFL season kicks off with this AFC North matchup on Sunday.
Both teams disappointed last season, and now both are looking to right the ship in 2025.
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The Browns seemed to check out of the hotel of doom and despair in the last few years, only to return straight to the presidential suite this year. Injuries didn’t help, but Cleveland’s problems run deeper than bad luck. Their offense struggled mightily—last in scoring, third-down conversion, and red-zone efficiency. There is a glimmer of hope, though: Cleveland invested in a young, athletic QB with franchise potential, his name? Joe Flacco. But to be safe, they also drafted promising QBs Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders.
The Bengals’ predicament was the opposite, but with a similar result. They boasted a top-5 offense led by Joe Burrow, who finished last season at the top of the league in passing yards, TDs, and passer rating. Ja’Marr Chase dominated, earning the receiving triple crown by leading the league in receptions, yards, and TDs. More surprisingly, RB Chase Brown emerged as a key part of the Bengals’ attack, acting as a playmaker both on the ground and in the air. And yet, with all that offensive prowess, the Bengals’ defense held them back, resulting in an average 9-8 record and missing the wildcard by 1 game.
Betting Preview & Props
DraftKings lists the Bengals as favorites at -238 ML, with the Browns getting +5.5 points. For new users, DraftKings is offering $300 in bonus bets instantly on a $5 wager, plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. You can use this link to sign up today!
I am not a fan of taking spreads in any game in Week 1. We don’t really know these teams yet, and most of them spend September trying to figure themselves out. We should do the same. For that reason, I am a fan of Week 1 unders. The under has hit at 55% in Week 1 since 2003. While a lot of people are gonna talk about an unstoppable force (Bengals offense) vs. an immovable object (Browns Defense), not enough are talking about an extremely stoppable force (Browns offense) vs. an even more movable object (the Bengals Defense). Both matchups spell a lack of offensive action. I see this game ending something like 17-10 Bengals, but am more confident in the under.
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For prop bettors, the following stand out:
- “No team to score over 30 points” at -110 is a simple way to ride the under.
- Joe Burrow over 25.5 completions (-103) is a fun bet. Even in a low-scoring game, Cincinnati’s offense runs through Burrow, who only missed this mark once in his last ten games last season.
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