Starting this with a disclaimer that I did not research this prop bet in any way, I didn’t even think to, but I did read it and thought it was brilliant. As such, I will paraphrase it, re-write it in some small way, and link off to the original author like a good content aggregator does.
Now, the prop: “How many yards will the shortest touchdown in the game be?” …
In every game, that line is +/- 1.5 yards. Odd. Doesn’t matter the line for the game. Doesn’t matter the total. Doesn’t matter the teams playing. Doesn’t matter …. anything. It is just that prop.
There is where stathead.com and Y! Sports come in. The original author – Greg Brainos – broke down the numbers from 2018 through last week. The results, on the surface, do not seem very actionable:
- 15.5% of all touchdowns in the NFL have been one-yard scores, since 2018
- “Over 1.5 yards” has a line of -110, so you need to win this bet at a clip of over 52.4%.
- “Under 1.5 yards” is juiced at -125, so in order to be profitable betting this side, you need to hit it at a rate of over 55.6%.
So, there are your baselines.
Here are your wide variances that make this prop exceedingly volatile.
- The 2018 Miami Dolphins scored zero one-yard touchdowns. In fact, they didn’t have any two-yard scores either. That is wild.
- Over 31% of the touchdowns given up by the Chargers in 2018 were one-yarders. That’s more than double the NFL average…. and it was immediately followed up in 2019 where only one of the 40 touchdowns surrendered by the Chargers was a one-yard touchdown.
Here is where it gets actionable…
BET THE UNDER ON THESE TWO TEAMS!
If you are going to play this prop, there are a couple spots to more regularly hit.
The Tennessee Titans and bruising back Derrick Henry have been a goldmine on this prop. Per Brainos, Seventy-five percent of the Titans’ games last season and 87.5% of their games in 2019 had one-yard touchdowns. That’s 81.3% combined. If you add in their first two games from this season, both of which had one-yard scores, that’s 28 of their last 34 regular season games for an astounding 82.4%.
Those are odds that I like to play into.
Right behind the Titans are the Panthers. Well, not right behind them, but damn close. Over the last three years, Carolina has plunged in from one in 77.1% of their games over three years. That is an incredible betting hack to play on.