This coming Sunday we are going to be blessed with a handful of really great games but most all eyes will be on the 2-0 Rams and the 2-0 Bucs…. and, honestly, with good reason.
The Bucs are the defending champs, they returned every starter from their Super Bowl winning team, and Tom Brady is on the fastest start of his G.O.A.T career. The Rams are loaded with talent and finally cast off check-down specialist Jared Goff for an actual quarterback and competitor in Matthew Stafford.
Okay, obligatory plug out of the way, here are the goods.
There are TWO trends that you need to know before placing your bets.
First, the Rams are not going to win, nor cover…… based on this trend:
The last nine times the Rams have won two games in a row, since 2019 — at any point in the season — they lost that third game eight times. Moreover, the Rams didn’t cover the spread in eight of them, either.
More simply, this is a squad that is 1-8 SU and 1-8 ATS after it wins two games in a row. In what amounts to a pick’em game if you get in now, that is actionable! Take Tampa.
The second important trend to take note of is with the total. Though it is a little more confusing.
Since moving into SoFi Stadium, the Rams games have went under eight of of nine games.
This info comes with one (big) caveat, however. All eight games last year went under…. the first game this year (against the offensively inept Bears) went over. Why is that worth noting? Well, again, the Rams went from Goff to Stafford. That could signal a change in style, points, offensive stability, and then obviously output.
The total is set this weekend against the Bucs is at 55, right now. If I have to predict the public, they will buy that up.
The two teams have had an interesting recent history the last two years — since Tom Brady arrived — and that has to be considered.
Tampa is hitting the over 13-9 in his games, beating the total by an average of +3.7 points.
Los Angeles is 8-12 over that same times agains the over, missing the total by -3.4 points.
That sounds like a wash… so keep reading.
This season, the two teams have combined to be 4-0 on the over, inflating the line. Tampa is scoring (and allowing) a lot of points. It is +14.2 on the total to open the year where the Rams are +2.8 in the two weeks.
Here is what we are playing: Bucs +1, today… right now.
Here is what we are eyeing: The public to buy up that total, if it climbs to 57, we are pounding the under. This is going to be a fun game to watch, but one team needing to hit 30+ and the other being near that number, we are going against it…. if it’s right.