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Line Movement That You Need To Keep An Eye On For Sunday

I make money in two ways: gambling, and writing about random stuff on TFM. When I can combine the two, it gets me pretty excited.

As such, there are already a couple of things I wrote about this week so far that you should check out. One about a unique prop play, why the Rams won’t win this weekend, and how Christian McCaffery is your key to Thursday night success. Adding this piece in and I have enough money coming my way from TFM to let it ride and make a pretty serious bet.

One thing that I pay attention to is where the public money is at — as I wrote about for Monday’s winning play — and so there are already a lot of movement in the lines heading in to the weekend that you need to know about.

Before I go too far, be sure to sign up for a WynnBet account and get into the action.

Point Spreads (as of 11:00amCT on Thursday, Subject to Change)

  • Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: Opened at -9 BAL, is now at -8 BAL
  • Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills: Opened at -9.5 BUF, now at -7.5 BUF
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Opened at -4.5 PIT, now at -3 PIT
  • New York Jets at Denver Broncos: Opened at -11.5 DEN, now at -10.5 DEN
  • Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings: Opened at -1 SEA, now at -2 SEA

Totals (as of 11:00amCT on Thursday, Subject to Change)

  • Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills: Opened at 47, now at 45.5
  • Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: Opened at 46.5, now at 45.5
  • Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Opened at 50, now at 48
  • New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots: Opened at 43, now at 42
  • Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: Opened at 44.5, now at 43.5

Money Lines (as of 11:00amCT on Thursday, Subject to Change)

  • Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans: Opened at -370 CAR, now at -420 CAR
  • Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills: Opened at -410 BUF, now at -360 BUF
  • Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions: Opened at -440 BAL, now at -410 BAL

Now, you may be asking, WHY do I need to know this stuff?
I am glad you asked.

Books don’t make lines as a prediction. They make them to get even money on both sides of the bet. So when it is only Thursday and we are seeing two point swings in the line (Buffalo) or big drops in the totals (Bears/Browns) or major dollar amounts on the money line (Carolina) it is the books trying to balance their slate.

For example, Carolina (-8) is getting 83% of the tickets and 87% of the money. That line will be on the move to get folks to buy in on Houston. In theory, it would need to move A LOT to get people to buy in. The money line (now-420, up from -370) is still being bought up to the tune of 83% of the tickets and 89% of the money. Vegas did not do a good job setting the line here but it can not justify the type of movement this late in the game to offset.

It still has time for Sunday, which is where most of the lines above come from.

Some of those moves are curious… namely the Steelers line moving DOWN from (-4.5) to (-3). That is a really big move for a division game, a home game, and a game that is also sort of a must-win for Pittsburgh. Honestly, having it get down to (-3) may make me go make that play right now before the public buys it back up. So if it is back up by the time you get there just assume I am some shark that caused the line. It’ll make me feel bigtime, even though my $100 isn’t a drop in the bucket.

The other buy down that is interesting is the Bills moving from (-9.5) to (-7.5). Now, that .5 on the 7 isn’t going to probably keep me away but there is nothing worse than losing on the hook. However, that line move is indicating that people are believers in Taylor Heinicke, and/or the defense for both teams keeping it close. I am a believer in neither of those things and think that the Bills will win this game by the initial double-digit spread.

Lastly the Ravens money line moving down to (-410) from (-440) is a curious move because it still says that the Ravens are monster favorites, but that enough people are putting enough early money on the Lions (because of the perceived value on the + side) that Vegas needs to balance its books. There is the theory that the Ravens will be in a trap game after an exhausting, emotional game versus Kansas City and a measuring stick game in Denver but I am not buying into the team dropping a game to the Lions. That said, I am also not laying (-410) to win $100. That is not risk mitigation. Too much exposure if something crazy does happen.

The actionable play right now is the Steelers. The Black and Gold have covered a (-3) line against Cincinnati in 11 of the last 14 games played in Pittsburgh. It has also been on a 18-6 clip of covering (-3) since 2010 versus the Bengals, regardless of location.

Again, be sure to sign up for a WynnBet account and get into the action.

What do you think?

Written by Malcolm Henry

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